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You select a marble without looking and then put it back. If you do this 44 times, what is the best prediction possible for the number of times you will pick a blue marble?\newlineChoices:\newline(A) 22\newline(B) 11\newline(C) 1010\newline(D) 00

Full solution

Q. You select a marble without looking and then put it back. If you do this 44 times, what is the best prediction possible for the number of times you will pick a blue marble?\newlineChoices:\newline(A) 22\newline(B) 11\newline(C) 1010\newline(D) 00
  1. Understand Problem: Understand the problem and identify missing information.\newlineWe need to know the probability of picking a blue marble each time to predict the total number of times a blue marble will be picked in 44 tries. However, the problem doesn't specify the total number of marbles or the number of blue marbles. Assuming a fair chance for any color, we can use the given choices to infer a reasonable probability.
  2. Assume Equal Probability: Assume each color has an equal chance of being picked. If there are multiple colors and one of them is blue, a reasonable assumption might be that each color is equally likely. For simplicity, let's assume there are four colors of marbles including blue. This gives a probability of picking a blue marble as 14\frac{1}{4}.
  3. Calculate Expected Number: Calculate the expected number of times a blue marble is picked. Using the probability from Step 22, the expected number of times picking a blue marble in 44 tries is: Expected number = Total tries ×\times Probability of picking blue = 4×14=14 \times \frac{1}{4} = 1.

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