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At LaGuardia Airport for a certain nightly flight, the probability that it will rain is 0.19 and the probability that the flight will be delayed is 0.17 . The probability that it will rain and the flight will be delayed is 0.05 . What is the probability that it is not raining if the flight leaves on time? Round your answer to the nearest thousandth.
Answer:

At LaGuardia Airport for a certain nightly flight, the probability that it will rain is 00.1919 and the probability that the flight will be delayed is 00.1717 . The probability that it will rain and the flight will be delayed is 00.0505 . What is the probability that it is not raining if the flight leaves on time? Round your answer to the nearest thousandth.\newlineAnswer:

Full solution

Q. At LaGuardia Airport for a certain nightly flight, the probability that it will rain is 00.1919 and the probability that the flight will be delayed is 00.1717 . The probability that it will rain and the flight will be delayed is 00.0505 . What is the probability that it is not raining if the flight leaves on time? Round your answer to the nearest thousandth.\newlineAnswer:
  1. Events Denotation: Let's denote the events as follows:\newlineR: It will rain.\newlineD: The flight will be delayed.\newlineWe are given the following probabilities:\newlineP(R)=0.19P(R) = 0.19\newlineP(D)=0.17P(D) = 0.17\newlineP(R and D)=0.05P(R \text{ and } D) = 0.05\newlineWe want to find the probability that it is not raining given that the flight leaves on time. This can be expressed as P(Not RNot D)P(\text{Not } R | \text{Not } D), which is the conditional probability of it not raining given that the flight is not delayed.
  2. Find Probability Not Delayed: First, we need to find the probability of the flight not being delayed, which is P(Not D)P(\text{Not } D). This is the complement of the flight being delayed, so we calculate it as:\newlineP(Not D)=1P(D)P(\text{Not } D) = 1 - P(D)\newlineP(Not D)=10.17P(\text{Not } D) = 1 - 0.17\newlineP(Not D)=0.83P(\text{Not } D) = 0.83
  3. Find Probability Not Rain and Not Delayed: Next, we need to find the probability of it not raining and the flight not being delayed, which is P(Not R and Not D)P(\text{Not } R \text{ and Not } D). This can be found by taking the complement of the probability of either raining or the flight being delayed. Using the Addition Rule of Probability, we have:\newlineP(R or D)=P(R)+P(D)P(R and D)P(R \text{ or } D) = P(R) + P(D) - P(R \text{ and } D)\newlineP(R or D)=0.19+0.170.05P(R \text{ or } D) = 0.19 + 0.17 - 0.05\newlineP(R or D)=0.31P(R \text{ or } D) = 0.31\newlineNow, we find the complement of P(R or D)P(R \text{ or } D) to get P(Not R and Not D)P(\text{Not } R \text{ and Not } D):\newlineP(Not R and Not D)=1P(R or D)P(\text{Not } R \text{ and Not } D) = 1 - P(R \text{ or } D)\newlineP(Not R and Not D)=10.31P(\text{Not } R \text{ and Not } D) = 1 - 0.31\newlineP(Not R and Not D)=0.69P(\text{Not } R \text{ and Not } D) = 0.69
  4. Calculate Conditional Probability: Now we can use the definition of conditional probability to find P(Not RNot D)P(\text{Not } R | \text{Not } D). The formula for conditional probability is:\newlineP(Not RNot D)=P(Not R and Not D)P(Not D)P(\text{Not } R | \text{Not } D) = \frac{P(\text{Not } R \text{ and } \text{Not } D)}{P(\text{Not } D)}\newlineSubstituting the values we have found:\newlineP(Not RNot D)=0.690.83P(\text{Not } R | \text{Not } D) = \frac{0.69}{0.83}\newlineP(Not RNot D)0.8313P(\text{Not } R | \text{Not } D) \approx 0.8313
  5. Final Probability Calculation: Finally, we round the answer to the nearest thousandth as requested: P(Not RNot D)0.831P(\text{Not } R | \text{Not } D) \approx 0.831

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