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At LaGuardia Airport for a certain nightly flight, the probability that it will rain is 0.1 and the probability that the flight will be delayed is 0.18 . The probability that it will rain and the flight will be delayed is 0.02 . What is the probability that the flight would leave on time when it is raining? Round your answer to the nearest thousandth.
Answer:

At LaGuardia Airport for a certain nightly flight, the probability that it will rain is 00.11 and the probability that the flight will be delayed is 00.1818 . The probability that it will rain and the flight will be delayed is 00.0202 . What is the probability that the flight would leave on time when it is raining? Round your answer to the nearest thousandth.\newlineAnswer:

Full solution

Q. At LaGuardia Airport for a certain nightly flight, the probability that it will rain is 00.11 and the probability that the flight will be delayed is 00.1818 . The probability that it will rain and the flight will be delayed is 00.0202 . What is the probability that the flight would leave on time when it is raining? Round your answer to the nearest thousandth.\newlineAnswer:
  1. Events Denoted: Let's denote the events as follows:\newlineR: It will rain.\newlineD: The flight will be delayed.\newlineT: The flight will leave on time.\newlineWe are given the following probabilities:\newlineP(R)=0.1P(R) = 0.1 (probability that it will rain)\newlineP(D)=0.18P(D) = 0.18 (probability that the flight will be delayed)\newlineP(R and D)=0.02P(R \text{ and } D) = 0.02 (probability that it will rain and the flight will be delayed)\newlineWe want to find P(T given R)P(T \text{ given } R), which is the probability that the flight will leave on time given that it is raining. We can use the formula for conditional probability:\newlineP(T given R)=P(T and R)P(R)P(T \text{ given } R) = \frac{P(T \text{ and } R)}{P(R)}\newlineFirst, we need to find P(T and R)P(T \text{ and } R). Since P(R and D)P(R \text{ and } D) is the probability that it will rain and the flight will be delayed, P(T and R)P(T \text{ and } R) is the probability that it will rain and the flight will not be delayed. We can find this by subtracting P(R and D)P(R \text{ and } D) from P(R)P(R):\newlineP(D)=0.18P(D) = 0.1800\newlineP(D)=0.18P(D) = 0.1811\newlineP(D)=0.18P(D) = 0.1822
  2. Conditional Probability Calculation: Now we can calculate P(T given R)P(T \text{ given } R) using the values we have: P(T given R)=P(T and R)P(R)P(T \text{ given } R) = \frac{P(T \text{ and } R)}{P(R)} P(T given R)=0.080.1P(T \text{ given } R) = \frac{0.08}{0.1} P(T given R)=0.8P(T \text{ given } R) = 0.8

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