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At LaGuardia Airport for a certain nightly flight, the probability that it will rain is 0.18 and the probability that the flight will be delayed is 0.08 . The probability that it will not rain and the flight will leave on time is 0.81 . What is the probability that it is raining if the flight has been delayed? Round your answer to the nearest thousandth.
Answer:

At LaGuardia Airport for a certain nightly flight, the probability that it will rain is 00.1818 and the probability that the flight will be delayed is 00.0808 . The probability that it will not rain and the flight will leave on time is 00.8181 . What is the probability that it is raining if the flight has been delayed? Round your answer to the nearest thousandth.\newlineAnswer:

Full solution

Q. At LaGuardia Airport for a certain nightly flight, the probability that it will rain is 00.1818 and the probability that the flight will be delayed is 00.0808 . The probability that it will not rain and the flight will leave on time is 00.8181 . What is the probability that it is raining if the flight has been delayed? Round your answer to the nearest thousandth.\newlineAnswer:
  1. Events Denoted: Let's denote the events as follows:\newlineR: It will rain.\newlineD: The flight will be delayed.\newlineWe are given the following probabilities:\newlineP(R)=0.18P(R) = 0.18\newlineP(D)=0.08P(D) = 0.08\newlineP(not R and not D)=0.81P(\text{not } R \text{ and not } D) = 0.81\newlineWe need to find the probability that it is raining given that the flight has been delayed, which is P(RD)P(R|D). To find this, we can use Bayes' theorem or the definition of conditional probability, which is P(RD)=P(R and D)P(D)P(R|D) = \frac{P(R \text{ and } D)}{P(D)}. However, we are not directly given P(R and D)P(R \text{ and } D), but we can find it by using the complement of the given probability of P(not R and not D)P(\text{not } R \text{ and not } D).\newlineFirst, let's find P(R or D)P(R \text{ or } D), which is the complement of P(not R and not D)P(\text{not } R \text{ and not } D). Using the formula for the complement of a probability, we have:\newlineP(R or D)=1P(not R and not D)P(R \text{ or } D) = 1 - P(\text{not } R \text{ and not } D)\newlineP(D)=0.08P(D) = 0.0800\newlineP(D)=0.08P(D) = 0.0811
  2. Find P(R or D)P(R \text{ or } D): Now, we can use the Addition Rule of Probability to find P(R and D)P(R \text{ and } D). The Addition Rule states that:\newlineP(R or D)=P(R)+P(D)P(R and D)P(R \text{ or } D) = P(R) + P(D) - P(R \text{ and } D)\newlineWe can rearrange this formula to solve for P(R and D)P(R \text{ and } D):\newlineP(R and D)=P(R)+P(D)P(R or D)P(R \text{ and } D) = P(R) + P(D) - P(R \text{ or } D)\newlineSubstituting the values we have:\newlineP(R and D)=0.18+0.080.19P(R \text{ and } D) = 0.18 + 0.08 - 0.19\newlineP(R and D)=0.07P(R \text{ and } D) = 0.07
  3. Find P(R and D)P(R \text{ and } D): Now that we have P(R and D)P(R \text{ and } D), we can find the conditional probability P(RD)P(R|D) using the formula:\newlineP(RD)=P(R and D)P(D)P(R|D) = \frac{P(R \text{ and } D)}{P(D)}\newlineSubstituting the values we have:\newlineP(RD)=0.070.08P(R|D) = \frac{0.07}{0.08}\newlineP(RD)=0.875P(R|D) = 0.875\newlineHowever, we need to round our answer to the nearest thousandth, so:\newlineP(RD)0.875P(R|D) \approx 0.875

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