At LaGuardia Airport for a certain nightly flight, the probability that it will rain is 0.18 and the probability that the flight will be delayed is 0.08 . The probability that it will not rain and the flight will leave on time is 0.81 . What is the probability that it is raining if the flight has been delayed? Round your answer to the nearest thousandth.Answer:
Q. At LaGuardia Airport for a certain nightly flight, the probability that it will rain is 0.18 and the probability that the flight will be delayed is 0.08 . The probability that it will not rain and the flight will leave on time is 0.81 . What is the probability that it is raining if the flight has been delayed? Round your answer to the nearest thousandth.Answer:
Events Denoted: Let's denote the events as follows:R: It will rain.D: The flight will be delayed.We are given the following probabilities:P(R)=0.18P(D)=0.08P(not R and not D)=0.81We need to find the probability that it is raining given that the flight has been delayed, which is P(R∣D). To find this, we can use Bayes' theorem or the definition of conditional probability, which is P(R∣D)=P(D)P(R and D). However, we are not directly given P(R and D), but we can find it by using the complement of the given probability of P(not R and not D).First, let's find P(R or D), which is the complement of P(not R and not D). Using the formula for the complement of a probability, we have:P(R or D)=1−P(not R and not D)P(D)=0.080P(D)=0.081
Find P(R or D): Now, we can use the Addition Rule of Probability to find P(R and D). The Addition Rule states that:P(R or D)=P(R)+P(D)−P(R and D)We can rearrange this formula to solve for P(R and D):P(R and D)=P(R)+P(D)−P(R or D)Substituting the values we have:P(R and D)=0.18+0.08−0.19P(R and D)=0.07
Find P(R and D): Now that we have P(R and D), we can find the conditional probability P(R∣D) using the formula:P(R∣D)=P(D)P(R and D)Substituting the values we have:P(R∣D)=0.080.07P(R∣D)=0.875However, we need to round our answer to the nearest thousandth, so:P(R∣D)≈0.875
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