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An art museum recently discovered that 19%19\% of their paintings had been stolen and replaced with replicas. If a tourist observes 22 different paintings at random, what is the probability that exactly 11 is a fake? Write your answer as a decimal rounded to the nearest thousandth.____

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Q. An art museum recently discovered that 19%19\% of their paintings had been stolen and replaced with replicas. If a tourist observes 22 different paintings at random, what is the probability that exactly 11 is a fake? Write your answer as a decimal rounded to the nearest thousandth.____
  1. Calculate First Fake Second Real: First, let's find the probability that the first painting observed is a fake and the second is real. The probability of picking a fake painting is 19%19\%, or 0.190.19. The probability of picking a real painting is 81%81\%, or 0.810.81, since 100%19%=81%100\% - 19\% = 81\%. So, the probability of one fake and one real in this order is 0.19×0.810.19 \times 0.81.
  2. Calculate First Real Second Fake: Now, let's calculate that: 0.19×0.81=0.15390.19 \times 0.81 = 0.1539.
  3. Find Total Probability: Next, we need to find the probability of the opposite order: the first painting is real and the second is fake.\newlineThis is also 0.810.81 (real) ×\times 0.190.19 (fake).
  4. Round to Nearest Thousandth: Calculating this gives us: 0.81×0.19=0.15390.81 \times 0.19 = 0.1539.
  5. Round to Nearest Thousandth: Calculating this gives us: 0.81×0.19=0.15390.81 \times 0.19 = 0.1539.To find the total probability of exactly one fake, we add the probabilities of both scenarios together.\newlineSo, 0.15390.1539 (first fake, second real) + 0.15390.1539 (first real, second fake) = 0.30780.3078.
  6. Round to Nearest Thousandth: Calculating this gives us: 0.81×0.19=0.15390.81 \times 0.19 = 0.1539.To find the total probability of exactly one fake, we add the probabilities of both scenarios together.\newlineSo, 0.15390.1539 (first fake, second real) + 0.15390.1539 (first real, second fake) = 0.30780.3078.Finally, we round 0.30780.3078 to the nearest thousandth, which is 0.3080.308.

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