An analyst is evaluating securities in a developing nation where the inflation rate is very high. As a result, the analyst has been warned not to ignore the cross-product between the real rate and inflation. A 6-year security with no maturity, default, or liquidity risk has a yield of 16.60%. If the real risk-free rate is 6%, what average rate of inflation is expected in this country over the next 6 years?
Q. An analyst is evaluating securities in a developing nation where the inflation rate is very high. As a result, the analyst has been warned not to ignore the cross-product between the real rate and inflation. A 6-year security with no maturity, default, or liquidity risk has a yield of 16.60%. If the real risk-free rate is 6%, what average rate of inflation is expected in this country over the next 6 years?
Introduction: The Fisher equation relates the nominal interest rate (the yield of the security), the real interest rate, and the expected inflation rate. The equation is given by:Nominal rate = Real rate + Inflation rate + (Real rate × Inflation rate)We are given the nominal rate and the real rate, and we need to solve for the inflation rate.Nominal rate = 16.60%Real rate = 6%Let's denote the inflation rate as i.
Conversion to Decimals: First, we express the rates as decimals rather than percentages for calculation purposes.Nominal rate = 0.1660Real rate = 0.06Now we can set up the Fisher equation with these values:0.1660=0.06+i+(0.06×i)
Setting up Fisher Equation: Next, we need to solve for i. To do this, we'll combine like terms and then isolate i on one side of the equation.0.1660=0.06+i+0.06i0.1660=0.06+i(1+0.06)0.1660=0.06+1.06i
Isolating Inflation Rate: Now, we subtract 0.06 from both sides to get the terms with "i" by themselves.0.1660−0.06=1.06i0.1060=1.06i
Solving for Inflation Rate: To find i, we divide both sides by 1.06. i=1.060.1060i≈0.1
Final Result: Finally, we convert "i" back into a percentage to express the average rate of inflation expected in the country over the next 6 years.i≈0.1×100%i≈10%
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