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An analyst is evaluating securities in a developing nation where the inflation rate is very high. As a result, the analyst has been warned not to ignore the cross-product between the real rate and inflation. A 66-year security with no maturity, default, or liquidity risk has a yield of 16.60%16.60\%. If the real risk-free rate is 6%6\%, what average rate of inflation is expected in this country over the next 66 years?

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Q. An analyst is evaluating securities in a developing nation where the inflation rate is very high. As a result, the analyst has been warned not to ignore the cross-product between the real rate and inflation. A 66-year security with no maturity, default, or liquidity risk has a yield of 16.60%16.60\%. If the real risk-free rate is 6%6\%, what average rate of inflation is expected in this country over the next 66 years?
  1. Introduction: The Fisher equation relates the nominal interest rate (the yield of the security), the real interest rate, and the expected inflation rate. The equation is given by:\newlineNominal rate = Real rate + Inflation rate + (Real rate ×\times Inflation rate)\newlineWe are given the nominal rate and the real rate, and we need to solve for the inflation rate.\newlineNominal rate = 16.60%16.60\%\newlineReal rate = 6%6\%\newlineLet's denote the inflation rate as ii.
  2. Conversion to Decimals: First, we express the rates as decimals rather than percentages for calculation purposes.\newlineNominal rate = 0.16600.1660\newlineReal rate = 0.060.06\newlineNow we can set up the Fisher equation with these values:\newline0.1660=0.06+i+(0.06×i)0.1660 = 0.06 + i + (0.06 \times i)
  3. Setting up Fisher Equation: Next, we need to solve for ii. To do this, we'll combine like terms and then isolate ii on one side of the equation.\newline0.1660=0.06+i+0.06i0.1660 = 0.06 + i + 0.06i\newline0.1660=0.06+i(1+0.06)0.1660 = 0.06 + i(1 + 0.06)\newline0.1660=0.06+1.06i0.1660 = 0.06 + 1.06i
  4. Isolating Inflation Rate: Now, we subtract 0.060.06 from both sides to get the terms with "i" by themselves.\newline0.16600.06=1.06i0.1660 - 0.06 = 1.06i\newline0.1060=1.06i0.1060 = 1.06i
  5. Solving for Inflation Rate: To find ii, we divide both sides by 1.061.06. \newlinei=0.10601.06i = \frac{0.1060}{1.06}\newlinei0.1i \approx 0.1
  6. Final Result: Finally, we convert "ii" back into a percentage to express the average rate of inflation expected in the country over the next 66 years.\newlinei0.1×100%i \approx 0.1 \times 100\%\newlinei10%i \approx 10\%

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