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On her way out of the toy store, Janelle stops to get 22 gumballs from the giant gumball machine. Her favorite flavor is blue raspberry, but only about 30%30\% of the gumballs in the machine are blue. How likely is it that both of the gumballs Janelle gets will be blue? Janelle simulates the situation by putting 33 blue marbles and 77 yellow marbles in a bag. She picks a marble, then returns it to the bag, 22 times. Each time a blue marble appears, it represents a blue gumball. Janelle records the results by writing "B" for a blue marble and "Y" for a yellow marble. Here are the results of 2020 trials: \newlineYY, YB, YY, YY, BY, YB, YY, BB, BY, YY, YY, YB, YY, YY, BY, YY, BY, YY, BY, YY\newline Based on Janelle's results, what is the probability that both of the gumballs will be blue?

Full solution

Q. On her way out of the toy store, Janelle stops to get 22 gumballs from the giant gumball machine. Her favorite flavor is blue raspberry, but only about 30%30\% of the gumballs in the machine are blue. How likely is it that both of the gumballs Janelle gets will be blue? Janelle simulates the situation by putting 33 blue marbles and 77 yellow marbles in a bag. She picks a marble, then returns it to the bag, 22 times. Each time a blue marble appears, it represents a blue gumball. Janelle records the results by writing "B" for a blue marble and "Y" for a yellow marble. Here are the results of 2020 trials: \newlineYY, YB, YY, YY, BY, YB, YY, BB, BY, YY, YY, YB, YY, YY, BY, YY, BY, YY, BY, YY\newline Based on Janelle's results, what is the probability that both of the gumballs will be blue?
  1. Understand Problem: Understand the problem and the simulation setup.\newlineJanelle uses a bag with 33 blue marbles and 77 yellow marbles to simulate picking gumballs from the machine. She picks a marble, returns it, and repeats the process. This represents the probability of picking a blue gumball each time.
  2. Calculate Probability: Calculate the probability of picking a blue marble in one trial. Probability of picking a blue marble == Number of blue marbles // Total number of marbles == 310\frac{3}{10} == 0.30.3.
  3. Calculate Two Trials Probability: Calculate the probability of picking two blue marbles in two trials (since she returns the marble each time, the probability remains the same for each pick).\newlineProbability of both picks being blue = Probability of first blue pick ×\times Probability of second blue pick = 0.3×0.3=0.090.3 \times 0.3 = 0.09.
  4. Analyze Experimental Results: Analyze the experimental results from Janelle's 2020 trials to find the frequency of "BB" outcomes.\newlineCount of "BB" outcomes = 11.\newlineTotal trials = 2020.\newlineExperimental probability = Count of "BB" outcomes / Total trials = 1/20=0.051/20 = 0.05.

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